Politics

Persistent insecurity and shifting political alliances are expected to play a decisive role in the 2027 general elections across Nigeria’s North-East, with analysts warning that both security challenges and evolving party dynamics will significantly influence campaigns and voting in the region. Nearly two decades after the Boko Haram insurgency began, large parts of Borno State remain volatile, with communities in local government areas such as Guzamala, Marte, Abadam and Kala Balge continuing to face attacks from Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). Renewed assaults on military bases and the continued abduction of civilians have further underscored the fragile security situation. The prolonged conflict has disrupted elections in several communities over the years, forcing many displaced residents to vote from safer locations while others remain unable to participate because of security threats. Poor access to liberated communities, often caused by landmines and improvised explosive devices, continues to complicate electoral preparations. Despite the insecurity, state governments have continued providing humanitarian assistance, including housing, healthcare, schools, water projects and relief materials for displaced persons. Political observers believe these interventions have strengthened public support for incumbent governors, particularly in states controlled by the All Progressives Congress (APC). Across the North-East, political developments have reshaped the electoral landscape ahead of 2027. The APC currently controls five of the region’s six states, while Bauchi remains the only state outside its control. The region is also expected to play a key role in the presidential election, with Vice President Kashim Shettima representing the APC and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar contesting under the African Democratic Congress (ADC). In Borno State, Governor Babagana Zulum’s preferred successor, Mustapha Gubio, emerged as the APC’s consensus governorship candidate after the party resolved earlier concerns over possible internal divisions. Analysts believe security will remain the dominant issue for voters in many parts of the state. Yobe is also expected to remain firmly under APC control, although security concerns continue to overshadow preparations for the election, particularly in vulnerable local government areas affected by recurring attacks. Adamawa has witnessed one of the region’s biggest political surprises following a contentious APC governorship primary that exposed divisions within the ruling party. The outcome has intensified competition ahead of the election, with opposition parties seeking to capitalise on the internal disagreements. In Gombe, the APC abandoned an earlier consensus arrangement after protests from party stakeholders, opting instead for direct primaries. The development has made what was initially considered a predictable contest more competitive. Taraba’s political landscape has also changed significantly following Governor Agbu Kefas’ defection from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC. The governor is expected to face a renewed challenge from the PDP, with the contest likely to centre on his performance in office rather than political endorsements. Bauchi is widely regarded as the most competitive state in the region after Governor Bala Mohammed left the PDP for the Allied Peoples’ Movement (APM). With the APC, PDP and other parties fielding strong candidates, analysts expect a closely fought governorship election. Analysts believe three key factors will determine the outcome of the 2027 elections across the North-East; the security situation, the influence of incumbent governors through governance and humanitarian support, and the growing wave of political defections and party realignments. While the APC enters the election cycle with significant political advantages across much of the region, observers say persistent insecurity and changing political alliances mean the outcome remains far from certain.

Civic accountability organization Tracka has raised concerns over the Federal Government’s proposed 2026 budget, revealing that allocations for luxury vehicles and empowerment programmes total almost N1 trillion more than the combined budgets of seven key federal ministries. Following a review of the 2026 budget proposal, the group said the government plans to spend N15.13 billion on the purchase of 39 sport utility vehicles (SUVs), while N947.7 billion has been earmarked for 2,579 empowerment projects nationwide. According to Tracka, the combined allocation of N962.83 billion exceeds the N960.27 billion budgeted for seven ministries, including Trade and Investment, Housing, Women Affairs, Justice, Livestock Development, Aviation and Aerospace Development, and Petroleum. The organisation said the spending pattern raises concerns about government priorities at a time when the country faces significant economic and social challenges. Tracka also questioned the transparency of the proposed empowerment programmes, noting that only 70 of the 2,579 projects have clearly identified implementation locations. It argued that the absence of location details makes it difficult for citizens, oversight bodies and taxpayers to monitor the projects or verify how the funds will be used. The group further observed that the projects are distributed across 184 government agencies, many of which do not have statutory responsibilities for implementing empowerment programmes. Among the agencies identified are one linked to a river basin authority, which is expected to oversee 393 projects valued at N127.1 billion, the National Agricultural Development Fund with six projects worth N89.5 billion, another state development-related agency handling 216 projects valued at N88.1 billion, and a separate agency responsible for 94 projects worth N36.9 billion. While acknowledging that properly designed empowerment programmes can improve the livelihoods of vulnerable Nigerians, Tracka warned that poorly managed schemes risk becoming channels for political patronage instead of delivering measurable public benefits. The organisation stressed that transparent project locations, clearly defined beneficiary selection criteria and implementation by agencies with the appropriate legal mandate are essential to maintaining public confidence in such programmes. Tracka also pointed to the country’s fiscal outlook, noting that the proposed 2026 budget carries an estimated deficit of about 46 percent, meaning a significant portion of government spending will be financed through borrowing. Given the country’s fiscal constraints, the organisation argued that every public expenditure should be tied to projects with clear, measurable outcomes and strong accountability mechanisms.

State governors are intensifying efforts to secure the speedy passage of the proposed state police bill, urging the National Assembly, the 36 State Houses of Assembly and the Presidency to complete the legislative process before campaigns for the 2027 general elections begin. The renewed push follows the House of Representatives’ approval of the Constitution Alteration Bill, which seeks to establish state police services across Nigeria. The bill was passed after weeks of lobbying by governors, who are now calling for its swift harmonisation with the Senate’s version. Sources familiar with the process said the governors want Senate President Godswill Akpabio and Speaker Tajudeen Abbas to immediately constitute a harmonisation committee to reconcile differences between both chambers before the National Assembly’s annual recess. According to the sources, governors are concerned that the legislative break and the approach of the election season could delay the bill if the process is not concluded quickly. Once harmonised, the legislation will return to both chambers for final approval before being transmitted to the 36 State Houses of Assembly for concurrence. Governors are also said to have engaged state assembly speakers, urging them to ensure the bill is approved promptly once received. They have equally opened discussions with officials in the Presidency, seeking a speedy presidential assent after the bill completes the legislative process. However, the bill’s passage in the House of Representatives has attracted criticism over the voting procedure. The legislation was approved through a voice vote, a move some stakeholders argue did not comply with constitutional requirements for amendments. A faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), led by former Minister Tanimu Turaki, has threatened legal action, alleging that lawmakers failed to consider and vote on the bill clause by clause. The group argued that such a process is required for constitutional amendments and warned that the procedure could be challenged in court. Former lawmaker Sergius Ogun also criticised the method adopted by the House, noting that previous constitutional amendment exercises relied on electronic voting rather than voice votes. While acknowledging that the outcome of any legal challenge cannot be predicted, he said judicial scrutiny could help clarify the constitutional process. The governors’ urgency is also linked to security planning ahead of the next general elections. Several states already operate local security outfits, including vigilante groups and community watch organisations, which they hope to transform into formal state police agencies once the constitutional amendment is enacted. Ogun State Governor Dapo Abiodun recently disclosed that governors had agreed to ensure their respective state assemblies pass the bill simultaneously after it is transmitted. Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele also expressed confidence that the states would demonstrate their support through a swift concurrence process. Many state assembly speakers have already pledged to support the legislation, describing it as a significant step in Nigeria’s constitutional reform efforts. Meanwhile, civil society organisations have called for broader public consultation before the bill progresses further. The Rule of Law and Accountability Advocacy Centre has urged the National Assembly to organise public hearings across the country’s six geopolitical zones, noting that important issues, including the proposed funding structure for state police, have yet to be fully explained to Nigerians. Although the bill secured 311 votes in the House of Representatives well above the constitutional threshold required for amendments minority lawmakers staged a walkout, insisting that the legislative process failed to meet constitutional standards. With governors pushing for accelerated action and opponents preparing possible court challenges, the fate of the state police bill will likely be decided in the coming weeks as lawmakers race against time ahead of the 2027 election season.